This document was sent to: MCPS Burley McWilliams, MCPS Superintendent Micah Hill, and publiccomment@mcpsmt.org
INFORMATION FROM CHART FROM A REPORT HANDOUT AT A HIGH SCHOOL
FUTURES MEETING IN 2004
Important Information about the demographics for the Missoula
County Public Schools District #1 by Dr. Larry Swanson at a High School Futures
Meeting in November 2004
In the presentation above citizens were given a handout with
demographic information which included many charts. On many of Swanson’s charts,
there is written material as well which explains the dynamics of the population
of children as they go through the school years. Swanson begins most of his
explanations with the baby boom population beginning in the late 1940’s, after
WW11. The baby boomer children started an explosion in school population as they
grew up and started school and then rippled throughout the subsequent grades. Then as they grew older and had children of
their own these children then began another increase in the school age
population. Swanson called these children the “echo boomers”. And subsequently these
echo boomers once again had children of their own which Swanson calls the “echo
echo boomers”
In the
last paragraph of one chart (Past and Present MCPS School Enrollment Levels
for Elementary Grades K through 5,1990-2030) it states,
“In general, the school systems elementary enrollment, which
has been falling, has now begun to stabilize and will steadily rise for the next
10 to 12 years. After that time, the numbers will once again begin to fall,
starting with the earliest grades first and with this decline then rippling
through the subsequent grade levels. This general decline, however, is expected
to once again stabilize after 2025 and a new floor in elementary enrollment levels will form
before enrollment begins to rise after 2030.”
Once
again, according to the information in the chart mentioned above, the
“…. ENROLLMENT BEGINS TO RISE AFTER 2030.”
MCPS is now looking at school buildings within the district
as vacant. The district is
using the low enrollment figures at this time which Swanson alludes to
above, as if the enrollment will never increase. It would behoove the district to read Swanson’s information
above to see that in JUST 4 YEARS THE ENROLLMENT WILL INCREASE.
Even though this information was given to the district in 2004,
it is still valid today as the premise of much of his study is the effects of
the baby boomers and the subsequent generations (echo boomers, echo echo
boomers).
Swanson’s report was given to the district in November of
2004 after the 3 school closures and other school closures in prior years. The
school board did not have this specific information; however, I was told there
were other demographers who gave similar information to the district.
In fact, any changes to the buildings, whether to renovate,
lease, or sell would be costly to the district. As Larry Swanson said in this presentation
the best thing to do is to
“ride it out”, that is to adjust in small ways, not big ways, which are not
so disruptive to the district and the population as a whole.
Figure 1 "...before enrollment begins to rise after 2030”
At the Walk-Through at Prescott School on September 18th,
2025, I heard more than once from an MCPS school official that the MCPS enrollment was down 600
students. There have also been newspaper articles reporting on MCPS
issues that discuss low enrollment.
Once again, Larry Swanson reveals that the enrollment will
start an upward
swing in just 4 years. Low enrollment currently does not
justify huge changes in building infrastructure. nor does it justify leasing our current school
buildings nor selling a school building.
When school funding is not adequate for the spending of a
district, the district needs to look at other areas to cut such as administration
and program cuts.
Thank you for reading my information given to the MCPS school
district in 2004 which is still relevant today. Jeanne Joscelyn, jeannejoscelyn@hotmail.com , 406-721-9027
